The Power Pivot

The Power Pivot: U.S. Energy Policy at a Crossroads

Energy Considered’s 5,000 tracked Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) have been closely monitoring the divergence in energy diplomacy between the U.S. and China. In Q1 alone, those leaders mentioned U.S. energy policies 163 times, reflecting a surge of attention on how Washington was balancing its clean energy momentum with continued fossil expansion. The Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law accelerated offshore wind, solar, and nuclear projects, while LNG terminals and pipelines still advanced. Energy Considered’s tracked KOLs, including Robert Kad (Midstream & Natural Gas / Infrastructure, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office, U.S.), emphasised that LNG growth remains central to U.S. trade leverage, though its credibility depends on pairing fossil expansion with consistent clean energy delivery.

As the second quarter unfolded, the narrative had taken a different direction. Mentions of U.S. policies tracked by Energy Considered experts fell to 122, as diplomacy turned outward. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar unlocked new LNG and Small Modular Reactor (SMR) agreements, with firms like ExxonMobil and NextEra leading the charge. Alastair Syme (Managing Director, Citi, UK) summed up the underlying dilemma: “The divide is not really one around political ideology, it is one around affordability.” His words reflect how Energy Considered’s KOLs are linking the success of U.S. diplomacy to the economics shaping global markets.

Meanwhile, China invested over $21 billion between 2021–2024 in Gulf solar, wind, hydrogen, and storage projects, aligning with Vision 2030 diversification goals. Energy Considered’s tracked KOLs, such as Roger Read (Senior Energy Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities, U.S.), observed that investors increasingly view renewables not just as climate tools but as instruments of geopolitical influence.

The Power Pivot: U.S. Energy Policy at a Crossroads

Early 2025 opened with strong momentum for U.S. clean energy policy. According to Energy Considered’s network of 5,000 key opinion leaders (KOL), federal action was driving projects at an unprecedented scale. In Q1 alone, those leaders mentioned U.S. energy policies 163 times, reflecting the surge of attention around the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and the Energy Project Reform Act (EPRA). Together, those measures unlocked a wave of new developments: offshore wind hubs like Vineyard and Empire, 10 gigawatts of solar paired with storage, and multiple licenses for small modular reactors (SMRs). With the Department of Energy (DOE) and FERC streamlining permitting, the U.S. looked on track to cut emissions 49% by 2035.

Energy Considered’s tracked industry voices captured that optimism. Mike Sommers (President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute) remarked, “Alaska shows the U.S. is open for energy investment.” Robin Mills (Senior Researcher at the Iraq Energy Institute), tied policy momentum to geopolitics, pointing out, “Nuclear power is a hot-button issue for Trump’s Gulf visit.”

The discourse evolved by Q2, reflecting a change in tone and emphasis. Mentions of U.S. policies tracked by Energy Considered’s experts fell to 122, as federal momentum slowed. Proposals to trim IRA credits and restructure the DOE cast doubt on earlier progress. Projections for emissions reductions slipped to 36–42%, while $263 billion in clean energy investment and more than 830,000 jobs were suddenly at risk. Anas Alhajji (Independent energy strategist) sounded the alarm: “The rollback of critical policies is a direct attack on U.S. climate goals.” Edward Cross of the (President of Kansas Independent Oil & Gas Association) added a reminder of everyday stakes: “Energy policy must lift up people, not just industries,” warning that households could face an extra $280 in annual costs.

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The Power Pivot: U.S. Energy Policy at a Crossroads - Quarter 2 2025

Case for tracking:

In Q1 2025, the Trump administration focused on strengthening energy ties in the Middle East, with Trump’s Gulf tour promoting cooperation on oil, gas, and small modular reactors (SMRs). The UAE explored nuclear expansion, while Saudi Arabia remained in early-stage talks. In Q2, the focus shifted sharply as Trump’s post-ceasefire remarks allowed China to continue importing Iranian oil despite ongoing sanctions, causing confusion in oil markets and driving prices down nearly 6%.

Though the U.S. claimed sanctions were still active, the lack of immediate enforcement signalled a softer stance. China maintained discounted oil imports from Iran, benefiting its small refineries, while U.S. crude remained a minor share. Domestically, Trump fired key climate officials, dissolved the Office of Global Change, and merged the Bureau of Energy Resources into Economic and Business Affairs, marking a clear pivot toward boosting American oil, gas, and critical mineral exports over climate cooperation.

Volume of Mentions from Energy Considered’s Key Opinion Leaders:

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To continue reading this briefing and explore deeper insights, register for access to our Energy Insights Portal. Inside, you’ll find:

  • Extended editorial briefings with in-depth analysis and empirical data drawn from 5,000 of the world’s most influential commentators on the energy industry on key issues shaping the energy sector.
  • Monthly and quarterly data identifying and tracking how energy industry leaders are engaging with critical topics.
  • In depth research explaining why energy industry leaders are engaging with these key issues and providing the context and framework for further exploration.
  • Quantitative primary research conducted with responses from energy industry leaders on our panel, providing unique answers to the issues affecting the global energy industry.
  • Power BI dashboards offering dynamic exploration of 5,000 energy key opinion leaders, social and digital narrative analysed against 14 strategic and tactical energy industry metrics.
  • Expert interpretation of what these issues really mean to the industry and what decisions can be taken on the back of unprecedented empirical evidence.
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