North Sea Policy Under Strain

North Sea

North Sea Policy Under Strain: UK Balances Energy Security, Tax Pressure, and Scope-3 Regulation Amid Production Decline

North Sea policy came under sharper scrutiny in Q3 2025. Across Energy Considered’s 5,000 tracked Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs), mentions of the North Sea rose to 82 this quarter, reflecting how fiscal pressure, declining output, and Scope-3 obligations have converged to reshape industry sentiment. Most commentary came from consulting, policy, and energy-sector voices debating how the UK can maintain supply security while sustaining investor confidence.

For much of the past decade, the North Sea was treated as a stable backbone of the UK’s energy mix. Now, with production projected to fall 7–8 percent annually and the Energy Profits Levy extended through 2029, that stability looks increasingly fragile. As Felicity Bradstock wrote for OilPrice.com, “the government’s move to tighten production limits has raised concerns that the UK is prioritising optics over energy security.” Andy Samuel (former Chief Executive, North Sea Transition Authority) noted that “policy coherence, not policy volume, will determine whether the basin can manage decline without losing investor confidence.”


Expanded Scope-3 reporting and electrification mandates are reshaping operator priorities toward shorter-cycle projects and brownfield optimisation. Helena Horton, Kiran Stacey, and Rowena Mason wrote in The Guardian that “ministers are facing mounting pressure to clarify how the UK can pursue new drilling licences while maintaining its net zero commitments.” The quarter’s discussion underscored a shared concern among Energy Considered’s tracked KOLs: without consistent policy and fiscal clarity, the UK risks deterring the very investment needed for its managed transition.

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North Sea Policy Under Strain: UK Balances Energy Security, Tax Pressure, and Scope-3 Regulation Amid Production Decline - Quarter 3 2025

Case for tracking:

In Q3 2025, the North Sea was back in focus, with new discoveries but also mounting pressures. Equinor found more oil and gas near the Troll field, while Shell restarted Penguins using a new FPSO that extends field life and lowers emissions. At the same time, new UK rules on scope-3 emissions put projects like Jackdaw and Rosebank under closer scrutiny, reigniting debates over whether fresh licences should be issued.

High taxes and ongoing uncertainty hit producers hard, Harbour Energy even cut jobs, blaming what it called punitive levies, sparking fears of investment leaving the basin. Production stayed in long-term decline, already down more than 65% from its peak, with further drops likely without major new finds. The quarter captured a clear tension: some argue for maximising remaining fields to protect jobs and energy security, while others push for a managed phase-down to meet net-zero goals.

Volume of Mentions from Energy Considered’s Key Opinion Leaders:

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  • Extended editorial briefings with in-depth analysis and empirical data drawn from 5,000 of the world’s most influential commentators on the energy industry on key issues shaping the energy sector.
  • Monthly and quarterly data identifying and tracking how energy industry leaders are engaging with critical topics.
  • In depth research explaining why energy industry leaders are engaging with these key issues and providing the context and framework for further exploration.
  • Quantitative primary research conducted with responses from energy industry leaders on our panel, providing unique answers to the issues affecting the global energy industry.
  • Power BI dashboards offering dynamic exploration of 5,000 energy key opinion leaders, social and digital narrative analysed against 14 strategic and tactical energy industry metrics.
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